* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 57 54 50 42 35 29 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 57 54 50 42 35 29 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 53 49 41 35 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 10 7 7 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 213 193 229 240 231 259 284 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.2 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 106 100 94 83 78 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 49 45 40 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 15 13 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 2 1 6 -5 -13 -26 -36 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -25 -31 -16 1 -17 0 -34 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 6 2 9 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 580 640 672 693 723 835 956 1056 1209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.2 119.1 119.9 120.7 122.4 123.9 125.1 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -18. -23. -25. -28. -31. -35. -39. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -15. -23. -30. -36. -42. -43. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.3 117.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##