* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/10/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 29 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 11 11 9 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 1 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 228 220 251 262 262 272 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.5 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 86 82 82 81 78 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 38 37 37 34 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -21 -27 -27 -28 -41 -43 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 17 -13 -22 -9 -35 0 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 6 5 9 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 792 849 910 974 1098 1241 1356 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.7 122.5 123.3 124.1 125.5 127.0 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. -43. -46. -49. -51. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.8 120.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/10/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/10/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##