* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 69 75 82 90 96 101 103 98 96 94 92 91 88 86 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 69 75 82 90 96 101 103 98 96 94 92 91 88 86 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 70 73 76 80 85 88 85 79 74 70 65 61 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 11 9 9 4 7 7 13 15 16 12 12 19 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -5 -8 -5 -6 -6 -2 -2 1 -1 4 3 8 7 -3 SHEAR DIR 358 327 310 309 307 272 281 268 195 213 183 181 184 214 221 226 173 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.8 26.1 24.7 23.8 23.2 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 121 121 122 124 125 122 116 111 110 113 101 96 94 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 95 94 94 95 97 98 97 93 89 89 90 82 80 80 72 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.8 -56.6 -56.0 -55.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -55.8 -55.9 -55.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 -0.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 47 48 48 49 53 54 55 54 51 44 49 54 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 17 18 19 22 23 26 28 32 32 34 35 36 38 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -42 -39 -30 -30 -27 -16 -6 1 18 34 41 35 48 80 101 114 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -11 4 -10 17 6 -3 19 26 33 28 30 34 72 65 20 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 5 5 0 -3 4 -4 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1183 1191 1199 1206 1213 1222 1207 1164 1110 1080 1061 1038 1017 1048 1122 1260 1472 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.1 38.0 37.9 38.1 38.9 39.6 40.4 41.4 42.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.4 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.0 44.5 45.0 44.6 44.0 43.2 42.4 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 22. 21. 24. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 25. 32. 40. 46. 51. 53. 48. 46. 44. 42. 41. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.1 44.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 21.7% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 34.8% 29.1% 11.3% 3.6% 22.8% 12.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 7.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 19.2% 15.1% 4.0% 1.2% 11.3% 4.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 5.0% 18.0% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 64 69 75 82 90 96 101 103 98 96 94 92 91 88 86 18HR AGO 50 49 56 61 67 74 82 88 93 95 90 88 86 84 83 80 78 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 57 64 72 78 83 85 80 78 76 74 73 70 68 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 53 61 67 72 74 69 67 65 63 62 59 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT