* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP822022 09/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 33 31 29 28 27 24 20 19 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 33 31 29 28 27 24 20 19 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 24 22 20 19 18 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 30 26 21 18 17 21 26 28 31 20 23 17 15 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 5 3 1 0 -3 -3 -4 3 -1 -2 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 216 214 224 235 242 239 253 272 276 272 260 261 272 325 6 53 32 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 139 139 140 141 144 147 147 148 153 156 156 153 157 156 156 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 31 29 28 27 27 26 27 28 31 33 37 38 40 40 43 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -45 -56 -58 -60 -61 -55 -50 -40 -33 -24 -22 -27 -43 -55 -81 -83 200 MB DIV -20 -28 -32 -23 -34 -31 -20 -32 -46 -16 -19 -10 -29 -15 -11 -19 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -10 -14 -13 -17 -13 -15 -1 -17 -12 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 514 493 510 547 589 674 779 949 1182 1482 1833 2171 2471 2716 2845 2730 2660 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.7 19.5 18.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.0 164.7 164.8 165.1 165.5 166.4 167.6 169.4 171.7 174.5 177.7 180.8 183.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 4 4 5 7 11 13 15 16 15 12 10 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 27 29 26 18 16 22 41 37 32 62 58 81 113 105 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.3 165.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP822022 NONAME 09/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822022 NONAME 09/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##