* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112022 09/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 46 41 38 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 46 41 38 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 43 37 32 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 5 8 13 9 10 9 13 18 27 31 42 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 7 3 0 0 1 1 1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 195 175 208 230 267 251 239 222 197 187 195 217 240 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.0 24.9 23.9 21.8 21.8 21.4 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.5 22.6 23.1 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 138 124 113 102 80 81 76 73 80 85 86 86 91 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 68 65 62 55 51 46 43 39 35 35 29 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 18 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 89 85 94 99 57 65 71 99 93 96 68 70 64 66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 40 -1 -20 -2 -7 7 -9 -13 5 8 13 0 -21 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 9 4 7 0 0 -1 0 2 2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 243 184 203 231 240 376 622 869 1027 1173 1349 1489 1602 1732 1869 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.1 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.4 116.5 118.7 121.4 124.3 126.6 128.7 130.8 132.5 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -12. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -22. -27. -34. -39. -46. -53. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.6 112.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 9.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 10.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##