* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 68 79 94 101 107 102 95 81 66 54 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 68 79 94 101 107 102 95 81 66 54 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 65 72 85 93 94 86 73 58 45 38 36 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 13 13 19 11 3 3 10 12 5 5 9 11 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 1 1 2 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 -5 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 35 26 16 22 16 39 105 296 272 244 233 236 244 221 234 220 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 26.8 26.5 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.1 22.8 21.2 21.1 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 149 148 149 153 132 129 113 105 97 92 88 71 70 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 84 83 83 83 83 78 73 64 64 59 60 55 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 30 33 37 43 44 49 48 47 41 34 28 27 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 90 80 86 87 86 89 95 118 101 106 102 112 87 83 76 75 73 200 MB DIV 71 79 97 140 145 114 79 122 86 53 28 27 16 8 8 -9 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -5 -6 -5 -13 -4 -2 10 25 21 11 -17 -1 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 338 372 408 427 471 533 398 317 214 193 85 140 161 244 347 460 506 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.8 18.0 19.6 21.5 23.1 25.0 27.0 28.5 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.7 106.6 107.6 108.5 110.1 111.5 112.7 113.3 114.2 115.2 116.3 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 25 17 18 19 29 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 76.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 4. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 31. 33. 31. 23. 12. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 21. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 34. 49. 56. 62. 57. 50. 36. 21. 9. 5. -1. -8. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 104.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.9% 20.1% 19.4% 0.0% 19.1% 16.8% 13.2% Logistic: 2.3% 17.0% 4.7% 2.8% 0.6% 9.4% 29.8% 6.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 22.6% 15.3% 3.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 8.8% Consensus: 4.7% 20.8% 13.4% 8.7% 0.5% 9.9% 15.8% 9.4% DTOPS: 15.0% 65.0% 45.0% 34.0% 20.0% 64.0% 60.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##