* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 64 63 61 55 54 50 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 64 63 61 55 54 50 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 63 63 61 55 51 48 46 46 45 42 40 38 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 14 16 21 22 20 17 6 42 55 68 71 49 50 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 -2 -1 3 4 7 2 -6 -7 0 0 2 8 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 198 188 186 196 223 217 209 207 159 357 312 320 297 295 288 279 280 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.3 20.7 20.5 17.9 17.2 17.8 20.2 20.5 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.3 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 104 102 101 82 81 72 68 71 80 83 80 80 80 81 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 86 85 85 73 72 66 62 65 71 74 73 72 71 72 70 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 -55.8 -56.1 -55.0 -53.9 -52.0 -51.7 -50.6 -50.8 -49.9 -50.4 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 1.2 3.8 4.3 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 48 49 49 51 59 64 63 62 76 75 68 68 63 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 31 33 32 28 25 20 16 29 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 55 64 79 79 89 130 180 198 188 141 169 127 61 115 172 200 MB DIV 12 11 25 36 25 33 53 37 36 -23 -4 48 30 0 9 13 10 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -8 0 16 20 21 17 8 -1 11 -3 1 -10 -52 -57 LAND (KM) 1046 1101 1160 1226 1296 1444 1562 1507 1514 1481 1566 1446 1113 779 585 367 66 LAT (DEG N) 42.0 42.3 42.6 43.2 43.7 45.4 47.3 49.4 50.4 49.7 48.0 46.6 46.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 40.7 39.6 38.4 37.1 34.2 32.0 31.3 32.2 32.7 31.8 28.4 22.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 13 11 7 2 6 11 17 18 13 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -44. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -10. -18. -29. -35. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -4. -6. -12. -18. -26. -30. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -11. -15. -25. -40. -58. -77. -71. -79. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.0 41.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 64 64 63 61 55 54 50 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 64 63 61 55 54 50 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 61 60 58 52 51 47 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 54 52 46 45 41 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT