* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 92 98 105 100 88 66 50 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 92 98 105 100 88 66 50 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 86 89 90 82 67 53 43 37 33 29 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 11 6 3 5 11 9 7 1 12 7 13 11 12 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 0 4 -5 0 -5 -1 -7 -8 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 12 10 23 37 75 334 267 234 238 172 266 230 254 271 280 269 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.1 26.7 25.2 23.9 23.7 23.0 23.0 21.4 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 149 154 145 131 115 101 99 92 91 73 65 67 69 70 71 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.4 -50.1 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 80 80 77 72 64 62 60 61 55 45 36 30 27 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 41 43 45 43 39 30 25 20 18 16 15 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 78 83 83 83 88 106 91 93 94 44 28 26 7 18 -3 0 9 200 MB DIV 103 100 98 85 95 91 35 31 13 -1 24 3 3 -13 -11 -27 -22 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 0 -1 10 18 18 -2 -7 -4 -4 -6 -7 -10 -12 -7 LAND (KM) 514 518 462 406 378 300 187 122 69 131 217 317 421 496 536 559 577 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.5 22.3 24.4 26.3 27.8 29.2 30.4 30.7 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.4 111.2 111.9 112.6 113.4 114.1 115.0 115.7 116.9 118.5 119.8 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 17 30 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -30. -35. -41. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. -7. -14. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 17. 23. 30. 25. 13. -9. -25. -39. -48. -55. -62. -69. -74. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.6 109.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.7% 20.6% 19.5% 12.1% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 29.7% 7.0% 5.5% 2.8% 8.2% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 19.4% 10.1% 8.9% 5.0% 8.5% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 34.0% 67.0% 49.0% 36.0% 25.0% 29.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##