* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 80 83 88 88 82 69 51 37 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 80 83 88 88 82 69 51 37 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 78 80 80 76 65 51 40 34 31 28 25 22 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 4 5 3 6 13 9 5 6 6 10 10 9 6 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 1 4 3 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 10 28 50 16 304 299 259 220 214 232 265 219 249 257 228 203 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.8 27.7 26.8 25.9 24.1 23.8 23.1 23.3 21.9 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 141 132 123 104 100 93 94 79 64 65 68 69 69 69 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 79 79 74 68 62 62 59 58 49 42 31 26 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 40 42 44 43 40 33 26 19 18 17 15 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 84 89 86 92 108 95 98 89 77 38 33 17 10 -1 5 10 23 200 MB DIV 95 88 99 99 83 70 30 -8 20 36 0 -11 -14 -20 -1 -13 1 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -1 0 5 25 30 16 -5 -9 -7 -8 -9 -9 -10 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 505 436 389 359 351 211 165 89 117 174 300 395 447 500 536 563 555 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.6 23.7 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.0 30.5 30.7 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.2 114.0 114.8 115.7 116.5 117.8 119.5 120.7 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 29 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -23. -28. -34. -39. -45. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 3. 6. 5. 3. -4. -16. -25. -26. -27. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 13. 13. 7. -6. -24. -38. -44. -51. -58. -64. -69. -75. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.4 110.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.4% 19.7% 18.7% 11.6% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 9.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.6% 7.3% 6.7% 4.0% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 38.0% 27.0% 17.0% 16.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##