* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 89 85 73 59 45 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 89 85 73 59 45 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 85 78 62 47 37 32 27 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 10 10 10 8 2 11 8 12 12 13 10 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 3 4 0 2 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 198 287 286 276 224 247 241 244 220 237 227 255 237 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 26.8 26.7 25.9 24.8 23.9 23.3 23.2 22.4 20.8 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 132 131 123 112 102 95 93 84 67 61 67 70 72 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 77 73 71 64 63 61 64 57 49 40 32 29 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 39 37 37 32 27 20 15 12 10 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 88 90 79 79 87 78 48 27 16 -8 4 -4 12 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 61 64 56 49 32 0 40 24 2 -2 0 -26 -5 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 11 16 13 22 -3 -8 0 -1 -6 -9 -10 -12 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 331 285 195 182 85 121 135 243 333 396 466 540 603 675 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.6 24.8 26.9 28.7 30.3 30.8 31.1 31.0 30.5 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.9 113.3 113.7 114.1 115.1 116.3 117.5 119.0 120.2 121.1 121.6 121.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 4 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -26. -33. -40. -48. -55. -60. -65. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -0. -4. -11. -22. -32. -36. -39. -36. -34. -33. -32. -29. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. -1. -5. -17. -31. -45. -59. -68. -77. -82. -86. -91. -97. -98. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.6 112.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 6.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/07/22 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##