* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 51 49 46 38 26 19 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 51 49 46 38 26 19 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 49 47 43 42 43 44 45 48 51 53 52 50 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 22 18 11 5 30 37 34 25 14 17 18 25 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 6 2 0 0 2 0 -3 -7 -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 216 209 198 207 214 310 307 303 283 244 230 269 272 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 20.9 20.2 18.5 17.4 17.0 17.6 20.2 20.7 20.3 20.7 20.4 19.4 19.6 19.6 20.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 81 75 71 69 71 82 84 82 84 82 77 77 77 80 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 68 65 63 65 74 76 74 76 73 70 69 68 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.2 -54.7 -53.9 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.5 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 2.3 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 2 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 52 56 55 51 52 54 59 71 77 80 75 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 33 32 31 27 22 18 19 21 21 21 20 18 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 98 107 141 150 189 186 196 207 199 185 184 147 132 99 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 34 57 60 26 4 -14 -29 -8 45 41 41 42 50 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 32 24 19 6 22 28 -6 -21 -11 -4 -3 2 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1564 1587 1518 1505 1496 1451 1590 1416 1078 712 373 134 134 179 175 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.2 47.4 48.6 49.4 50.1 49.9 47.4 44.9 43.8 42.5 41.4 42.0 44.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.3 31.6 31.0 31.3 31.5 33.1 31.6 26.6 22.4 17.8 13.3 10.5 9.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 10 8 4 6 17 19 17 18 13 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -34. -37. -40. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -22. -24. -22. -23. -23. -25. -28. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -22. -34. -41. -42. -42. -43. -47. -56. -66. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 46.2 32.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 56 53 51 49 46 38 26 19 18 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 54 52 49 41 29 22 21 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 49 41 29 22 21 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 37 25 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT