* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132022 09/16/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 40 44 49 52 55 58 60 61 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 18 18 21 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 53 59 61 51 75 90 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 151 153 159 157 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 4 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 86 88 86 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 49 48 50 69 96 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 129 119 127 155 118 130 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -11 -11 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 295 250 218 186 100 -8 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.7 17.6 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.1 96.7 97.3 98.0 99.6 101.3 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 9 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 13 14 19 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 95.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132022 THIRTEEN 09/16/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% Logistic: 0.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 4.7% 28.4% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 9.5% 12.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132022 THIRTEEN 09/16/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##