* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 40 39 39 34 30 22 18 18 17 20 21 24 23 24 V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 40 39 39 34 30 22 18 18 17 20 21 24 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 36 32 27 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 19 20 22 19 21 27 19 15 13 5 5 6 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 -5 -2 0 -5 2 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 84 80 82 89 92 86 76 88 97 76 78 106 179 224 196 229 233 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.2 25.9 25.7 26.4 27.3 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 140 139 140 134 120 119 126 135 139 136 133 124 121 121 116 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 5 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 82 81 76 70 71 69 69 66 62 55 50 50 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 21 20 21 20 20 17 15 16 14 14 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 76 78 83 81 76 61 69 47 50 52 53 52 61 67 54 200 MB DIV 89 83 63 67 82 49 32 7 19 30 16 -26 -35 -4 -5 -31 -35 700-850 TADV -9 -13 -8 -6 -4 -1 1 3 3 1 1 0 0 3 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 370 325 298 299 303 314 269 322 421 498 567 671 818 897 929 1021 1168 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.1 20.6 20.6 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.9 108.3 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.0 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 8 7 3 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 7 6 7 5 0 0 1 6 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -10. -18. -22. -22. -23. -20. -19. -16. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 106.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##