* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 41 37 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 41 37 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 46 42 38 32 27 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 24 23 20 17 11 7 4 6 8 10 7 11 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 -1 -5 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 79 88 96 101 95 87 96 156 205 198 213 245 219 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.2 25.4 25.0 25.0 25.3 26.2 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.2 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 124 116 111 111 115 124 127 123 122 114 112 107 99 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 69 66 62 59 57 52 50 47 41 35 33 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 17 15 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 68 64 55 56 39 38 37 37 35 34 31 14 1 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 37 26 7 -20 23 27 -13 7 5 3 -19 -17 -24 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 2 2 1 6 4 6 3 5 4 2 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 239 207 201 223 260 345 409 505 633 748 852 956 1095 1211 1315 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.1 113.5 114.9 116.2 117.7 119.0 120.4 121.9 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -25. -30. -34. -37. -38. -40. -40. -40. -40. -38. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.8 109.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##