* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082022 09/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 55 55 55 56 60 59 47 43 36 30 29 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 55 55 55 56 60 59 47 43 36 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 48 49 49 49 49 50 53 52 48 44 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 24 24 22 27 23 27 25 18 9 16 19 19 38 45 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -2 1 1 -3 -2 -3 3 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 202 196 215 228 225 262 264 290 282 257 244 29 359 234 219 225 243 SST (C) 27.1 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.1 24.4 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.5 22.0 22.5 21.0 19.5 16.6 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 119 113 110 107 99 100 98 94 93 93 87 89 82 77 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 102 97 94 91 85 85 81 77 77 78 75 76 71 69 66 66 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.4 -56.4 -56.6 -56.8 -57.6 -58.2 -58.9 -58.9 -58.3 -57.7 -57.8 -57.2 -56.2 -56.3 -55.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 50 45 43 44 48 52 57 57 60 53 43 41 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 13 16 16 10 8 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -69 -50 -43 -52 -62 -56 -61 -57 -52 -54 -57 -79 -94 -145 -106 -34 200 MB DIV 42 26 21 12 0 9 4 -4 -10 23 2 -44 -6 -3 45 37 29 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 1 0 8 1 13 9 6 8 7 11 8 -6 -22 -37 LAND (KM) 1566 1472 1386 1366 1358 1429 1579 1714 1788 1790 1681 1505 1286 1191 1237 1344 1487 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.3 36.5 37.4 38.2 39.5 40.2 40.5 40.5 40.6 41.1 42.2 44.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 44.1 43.5 42.3 41.2 38.5 35.7 33.6 32.6 32.5 33.6 35.2 37.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 6 2 2 6 10 10 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -22. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -0. 4. 3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 21. 25. 24. 12. 8. 1. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.1 44.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 EIGHT 09/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.1% 6.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 7.9% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.7% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 EIGHT 09/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 EIGHT 09/20/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 44 47 50 53 55 55 55 56 60 59 47 43 36 30 29 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 44 47 49 49 49 50 54 53 41 37 30 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 40 42 42 42 43 47 46 34 30 23 17 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 31 33 33 33 34 38 37 25 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT