* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/21/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 61 60 58 52 50 49 42 34 30 28 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 61 60 58 52 50 49 42 34 30 28 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 60 58 54 50 47 46 43 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 30 26 24 29 28 31 24 25 35 4 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 0 1 2 -1 -3 -1 0 -8 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 209 226 247 253 275 293 307 286 277 326 279 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.5 23.5 24.0 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.2 22.5 21.6 22.0 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 102 96 98 94 92 91 90 87 83 85 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 90 88 83 84 79 77 75 76 74 71 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.7 -56.9 -57.3 -57.7 -58.1 -58.8 -59.1 -58.9 -57.7 -57.7 -57.0 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 41 40 38 38 43 40 39 42 44 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 19 18 15 14 15 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -50 -50 -61 -61 -61 -40 -60 -65 -66 -90 -99 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 5 21 -1 -12 -12 5 -22 0 -37 -58 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 9 2 0 0 2 3 -4 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1337 1347 1369 1440 1517 1684 1809 1856 1755 1644 1538 1436 1357 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.7 39.5 40.0 40.5 40.9 40.8 40.9 41.7 42.3 42.8 43.7 44.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.0 40.7 39.4 37.8 36.3 33.7 32.1 31.4 32.2 33.3 34.4 35.2 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 8 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -16. -16. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -14. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -3. -5. -6. -13. -21. -25. -27. -27. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.9 42.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 8.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/21/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 60 61 60 58 52 50 49 42 34 30 28 28 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 58 57 55 49 47 46 39 31 27 25 25 24 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 52 50 44 42 41 34 26 22 20 20 19 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 45 43 37 35 34 27 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT