* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 55 54 50 46 46 45 37 30 25 24 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 55 54 50 46 46 45 37 30 25 24 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 55 52 48 45 46 47 44 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 26 26 33 30 32 21 19 29 25 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 239 253 251 276 295 312 295 281 319 340 321 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.9 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.2 23.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 100 96 94 92 92 95 97 97 98 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 86 86 83 80 77 76 78 81 81 81 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.3 -57.5 -57.7 -57.9 -58.7 -58.9 -59.3 -58.9 -58.4 -58.0 -57.8 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 37 35 35 36 39 40 42 42 38 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 19 18 19 17 15 15 15 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -66 -66 -68 -73 -47 -51 -41 -45 -79 -83 -88 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -14 -22 -22 -30 -1 -3 -12 0 -62 -51 -12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 7 0 -6 -4 -5 -3 -6 -6 -8 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1424 1505 1595 1702 1811 1760 1738 1805 1908 1771 1589 1485 1452 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 39.9 40.4 40.7 40.9 40.6 40.0 39.5 39.6 39.9 40.5 40.8 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.0 35.3 33.6 32.0 30.1 29.6 30.2 31.5 33.3 35.3 36.5 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 9 5 2 4 6 8 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -12. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -9. -10. -18. -25. -30. -31. -32. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.3 38.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 4.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/22/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 55 54 50 46 46 45 37 30 25 24 23 22 22 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 54 53 49 45 45 44 36 29 24 23 22 21 21 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 49 45 41 41 40 32 25 20 19 18 17 17 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 43 39 35 35 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT