* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 41 41 40 34 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 41 41 40 34 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 38 37 36 35 33 33 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 16 35 40 33 29 26 29 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 1 1 -9 -7 -3 0 -1 -1 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 270 265 286 324 326 321 314 325 335 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.7 25.7 26.2 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 100 102 102 101 102 105 110 112 117 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 85 86 87 85 85 88 92 95 102 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.2 -58.1 -58.1 -57.5 -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -1.2 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 44 45 46 47 44 41 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 20 18 15 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -2 -10 -29 -39 -32 -38 -39 -42 -45 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -13 0 -26 -49 -48 -38 -16 -33 -50 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -3 -8 -10 -11 -12 -24 -25 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1835 1930 1929 1823 1718 1603 1553 1503 1472 1493 1581 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.3 37.6 36.9 36.0 34.6 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.8 35.1 37.2 38.8 40.6 42.7 45.4 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -12. -15. -22. -26. -30. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. -22. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. -0. -6. -12. -17. -20. -26. -26. -28. -31. -32. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.2 30.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 5.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/24/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 41 41 40 34 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 41 40 34 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 37 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT