* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 39 38 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 39 38 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 33 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 23 26 31 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 284 293 297 308 312 302 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 133 129 127 127 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 41 40 37 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 8 11 13 6 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 4 7 -9 -27 -15 -30 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 2 5 4 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 675 671 672 675 692 734 797 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.1 114.3 114.6 114.8 115.2 115.9 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 3 2 4 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -28. -29. -29. -31. -32. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 113.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##