* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 66 66 66 66 70 74 76 76 80 84 89 90 92 91 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 51 40 37 37 41 45 47 47 51 55 60 61 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 51 40 37 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 13 15 19 26 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 20 53 61 55 87 97 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.2 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 159 165 171 172 172 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 159 165 171 172 172 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 85 85 85 86 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 20 16 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 75 72 83 106 115 85 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 120 116 116 144 198 160 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 180 48 -84 -134 11 39 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.6 81.9 83.1 84.4 85.6 88.3 90.7 93.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 26 41 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 25. 29. 34. 35. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 80.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 5.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 58.9% 42.4% 22.3% 17.1% 46.7% 34.1% 28.1% Logistic: 27.6% 76.7% 52.4% 36.7% 39.9% 45.5% 63.9% 77.9% Bayesian: 18.1% 72.2% 24.1% 6.8% 2.8% 29.6% 37.4% 98.9% Consensus: 20.3% 69.3% 39.6% 21.9% 19.9% 40.6% 45.1% 68.3% DTOPS: 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 51 40 37 37 41 45 47 47 51 55 60 61 63 62 18HR AGO 55 54 59 46 35 32 32 36 40 42 42 46 50 55 56 58 57 12HR AGO 55 52 51 38 27 24 24 28 32 34 34 38 42 47 48 50 49 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 34 31 31 35 39 41 41 45 49 54 55 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT