* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA EP182022 10/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 43 48 58 65 69 71 70 69 69 68 67 64 60 59 V (KT) LAND 35 37 34 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 88 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 179 191 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -20 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.1 91.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 13. 9. 3. -1. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 30. 34. 36. 35. 34. 34. 33. 32. 29. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 88.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182022 JULIA 10/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 183.7 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.3 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 26.7% 19.5% 17.7% 10.6% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 14.6% 4.7% 3.4% 2.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.9% 13.9% 8.2% 7.1% 4.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182022 JULIA 10/10/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##