* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192022 10/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 57 60 57 43 41 42 44 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 57 60 57 43 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 43 42 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 8 9 6 7 9 15 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 1 -3 -8 -5 -5 -3 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 232 229 253 276 248 188 151 177 219 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.2 29.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 160 161 159 155 151 156 159 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 75 71 70 69 66 63 59 55 50 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -11 -1 -2 3 15 15 34 18 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 72 91 64 61 35 65 61 50 64 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 250 268 276 261 253 237 164 76 13 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.6 21.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.8 102.4 102.8 103.3 104.3 105.2 105.8 106.0 105.4 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 35 37 37 35 34 32 22 19 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 30. 27. 13. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 35.6% 23.8% 22.4% 0.0% 24.2% 35.3% 38.9% Logistic: 16.2% 47.2% 29.9% 21.0% 5.7% 33.6% 50.1% 23.0% Bayesian: 6.8% 28.6% 13.5% 5.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% Consensus: 11.9% 37.1% 22.4% 16.2% 2.2% 20.3% 29.3% 21.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 24.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 NINETEEN 10/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##