* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 110 113 111 105 87 71 54 46 41 38 35 33 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 100 110 113 111 105 67 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 111 113 109 101 66 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 13 16 18 18 41 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 2 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 212 213 214 220 238 245 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.2 27.6 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 150 151 155 149 143 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 5 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 59 57 54 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -6 11 10 10 29 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 54 56 66 50 55 32 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 3 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 220 177 112 47 -65 -460 -322 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.2 22.7 26.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.1 105.1 103.0 100.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 11 16 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 15 15 18 12 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -28. -28. -28. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 13. 11. 5. -13. -29. -46. -54. -59. -62. -65. -67. -70. -72. -73. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.9 105.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.2% 26.8% 23.7% 23.0% 14.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.2% 11.7% 12.3% 10.0% 11.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.9% 13.0% 12.1% 11.0% 8.7% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##