* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 117 117 109 101 86 67 57 50 46 43 39 37 35 32 31 31 V (KT) LAND 110 117 117 109 101 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 116 113 105 98 51 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 20 19 18 26 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 -2 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 207 210 214 217 241 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.3 27.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 156 159 144 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 55 53 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 17 18 20 12 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 57 77 66 66 43 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -5 -7 12 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 177 136 45 48 -253 -359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.3 21.3 24.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.1 105.8 103.9 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 16 15 18 21 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -37. -37. -37. -38. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -15. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -5. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. -1. -9. -24. -43. -53. -60. -64. -67. -71. -73. -75. -78. -79. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.6 106.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.16 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 20.4% 19.0% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 5.5% 6.5% 4.1% 9.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.1% 8.8% 8.6% 7.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##