* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 37 38 36 33 30 29 27 29 30 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 33 34 32 29 26 25 24 25 26 26 25 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 32 30 29 27 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 26 25 23 28 30 28 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -6 2 -3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 176 190 200 211 214 224 216 232 246 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 151 145 140 131 126 124 126 126 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 145 143 137 130 118 111 107 110 111 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 7 8 7 10 9 9 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 70 67 58 54 47 46 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -15 -10 -8 0 -1 33 20 27 13 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 76 68 73 67 39 25 28 -6 -1 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 3 0 0 1 1 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -148 -112 -78 -44 12 88 149 157 165 137 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.6 91.5 92.5 93.4 94.5 95.0 95.1 94.7 94.6 94.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 5 3 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 9 20 15 10 8 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -16. -15. -15. -17. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 89.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.8% 5.2% 4.9% 3.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 33 34 32 29 26 25 24 25 26 26 25 24 23 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 40 41 39 36 33 32 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 41 42 40 37 34 33 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 39 37 34 31 30 29 30 31 31 30 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT