* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 72 75 69 56 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 72 75 69 56 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 72 69 63 48 40 40 40 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 38 39 32 20 6 6 4 6 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 15 19 19 12 -5 1 8 5 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 183 199 165 180 171 133 41 296 284 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 18.9 15.8 10.5 9.5 9.0 9.7 12.4 12.1 12.1 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 85 78 72 68 61 66 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 81 75 70 66 60 64 67 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -56.8 -54.0 -52.0 -51.3 -46.6 -47.5 -47.2 -47.7 -49.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 2.5 2.8 7.1 5.3 4.1 2.7 2.3 3.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 63 58 57 73 72 74 79 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 39 45 50 57 52 40 31 23 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 142 189 252 305 301 331 314 290 228 183 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 42 44 89 42 86 8 20 28 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -36 11 -2 32 -7 19 16 -1 10 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1043 1004 1117 1203 1325 1313 1480 1022 540 341 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.4 44.4 48.3 51.7 55.0 56.5 55.8 55.0 55.9 57.4 59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.5 40.6 37.8 36.8 35.8 36.2 32.9 25.7 17.7 11.8 7.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 39 44 39 34 21 5 15 22 20 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 32 CX,CY: 23/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -24. -32. -40. -47. -51. -55. -59. -63. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -14. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 10. 16. 14. 5. -5. -17. -27. -33. -34. -34. -33. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -0. -6. -19. -33. -48. -60. -69. -73. -77. -82. -87. -91. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 40.4 43.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 5( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 72 75 69 56 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 73 76 70 57 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 74 68 55 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 62 49 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT