* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 71 73 71 58 46 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 71 73 71 58 46 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 69 64 57 44 40 41 42 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 37 35 24 15 9 5 3 5 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 19 18 14 0 -4 0 7 7 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 202 171 166 143 162 127 360 300 284 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.6 15.3 10.6 9.8 9.3 9.6 11.0 13.3 12.7 12.2 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 78 71 67 64 63 68 71 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 75 70 66 62 61 66 68 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -54.2 -52.4 -50.0 -48.2 -45.8 -47.3 -47.3 -48.2 -49.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.9 2.1 3.3 5.8 6.2 4.9 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 59 54 64 75 75 78 83 81 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 44 51 57 56 45 36 28 22 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 152 246 295 325 329 348 283 224 193 192 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 27 78 45 79 46 25 18 33 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 65 27 -1 -11 11 15 10 2 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1172 1142 1255 1318 1337 1432 1278 699 298 201 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.6 47.9 52.2 54.1 56.0 56.1 55.7 54.1 55.6 57.9 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.5 36.2 35.9 35.7 34.2 29.7 20.7 13.6 9.4 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 44 31 19 10 8 20 23 18 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 36 CX,CY: 25/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -26. -33. -41. -48. -53. -57. -60. -64. -65. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 1. -2. -8. -17. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 6. 11. 12. 5. -4. -15. -25. -33. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -2. -4. -17. -29. -45. -59. -70. -69. -74. -79. -84. -90. -95. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 43.6 38.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 71 73 71 58 46 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 75 73 60 48 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 71 58 46 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 50 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT