* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 28 29 30 28 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 22 23 27 31 35 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 4 4 -1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 203 205 213 219 227 232 255 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 134 131 128 125 125 125 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 130 123 118 114 109 109 109 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 10 11 6 10 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 58 55 49 44 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 0 -5 21 18 9 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 74 51 45 43 19 -2 -12 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 3 4 0 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -60 5 53 72 107 139 162 143 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.4 20.5 20.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.6 94.4 94.8 95.2 95.3 95.1 95.0 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 14 12 10 8 10 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -7. -12. -18. -23. -25. -27. -30. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.0 92.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.8% 5.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.3% 3.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 28 29 30 28 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT