* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 01/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 59 57 57 58 52 48 43 40 37 29 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 52 52 39 39 39 40 34 30 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 51 41 49 63 69 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 15 17 24 46 60 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 6 0 0 3 9 14 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 192 230 264 249 231 236 222 220 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 10.4 3.5 2.7 0.4 -0.7 0.3 3.3 4.5 5.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 68 68 66 N/A 63 65 67 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -57.0 -58.5 -59.6 -60.8 -62.1 -63.0 -65.2 -65.5 -63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 5.7 4.9 4.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 70 74 79 85 78 69 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 17 14 12 10 13 19 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 283 263 221 181 175 194 141 205 242 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 30 35 35 42 44 53 65 -31 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -25 -20 -3 8 -3 -32 -33 -184 -36 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 105 -34 16 -64 186 503 954 1175 1108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 45.1 48.0 50.5 52.4 54.8 56.7 59.1 63.3 68.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 59.4 58.5 57.6 56.7 54.7 50.9 44.7 37.9 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 29 28 23 17 13 17 24 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 22 CX,CY: 13/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. -27. -31. -34. -37. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -14. -21. -29. -36. -43. -53. -60. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 4. 9. 13. 16. 21. 27. 35. 45. 54. 59. 62. 65. 66. 62. 54. 47. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -10. -5. -8. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. -3. -7. -12. -15. -18. -26. -33. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 42.4 60.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9999.0 28.3 to 146.3 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 01/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 01/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 52 52 39 39 39 40 34 30 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 48 48 35 35 35 36 30 26 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 38 38 38 39 33 29 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 32 32 32 33 27 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT