* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 02/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 58 53 41 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 58 53 41 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 57 53 43 36 31 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 52 50 57 57 60 73 72 77 58 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 8 9 12 14 16 20 25 11 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 223 228 228 218 228 242 252 270 279 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.3 16.0 18.1 12.9 6.1 0.6 9.2 6.9 9.3 8.6 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 75 81 74 71 68 71 72 73 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 71 77 72 70 N/A 69 71 71 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -55.1 -56.4 -57.6 -59.3 -58.9 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.9 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 57 59 59 51 51 58 69 74 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 27 30 28 26 22 23 20 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 167 208 243 257 137 76 40 103 167 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 170 173 123 94 98 73 26 39 27 40 -191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -46 5 42 44 -41 -146 -20 24 56 45 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 322 376 391 338 316 875 1329 540 260 -242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.2 40.2 41.7 43.8 48.1 51.7 55.3 58.4 60.2 60.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.3 68.0 64.5 60.3 56.0 48.6 41.7 30.5 15.1 -0.1 -9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 24 32 36 37 29 32 43 44 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 865 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -41. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -24. -36. -48. -54. -59. -66. -75. -88. -96.-100.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 32. 37. 39. 40. 40. 38. 31. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 1. -1. -6. -6. -11. -17. -19. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -7. -19. -37. -47. -60. -67. -71. -74. -82. -93.-100.-107.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.4 70.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 02/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 59 58 53 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 52 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 50 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 45 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT