* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP882023 02/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 45 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 45 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 56 49 41 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 80 75 67 60 56 52 47 44 41 41 38 39 44 50 49 52 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -8 -3 1 7 2 -3 -2 -4 -8 -2 0 6 6 7 9 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 247 243 241 236 248 247 240 237 239 244 246 243 256 275 274 269 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.4 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 143 140 137 135 132 130 131 131 130 130 127 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 44 45 41 40 37 36 34 37 36 38 40 47 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 34 27 19 3 -4 -11 -15 -11 -10 -3 18 33 50 44 39 200 MB DIV 13 21 19 16 2 1 -33 -26 -40 -28 -5 5 -11 -1 -48 -34 -13 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 488 537 587 668 764 946 1093 1223 1282 1360 1466 1584 1754 1979 2194 2405 2588 LAT (DEG N) 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.7 94.7 95.7 96.7 98.4 99.8 101.1 102.4 104.0 105.9 108.3 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 7 9 11 12 14 14 12 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 6 3 2 4 2 2 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -18. -28. -36. -46. -52. -54. -48. -41. -37. -39. -39. -35. -30. -22. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -19. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -25. -34. -51. -62. -67. -65. -60. -58. -63. -64. -65. -59. -52. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 4.2 92.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP882023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 67.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP882023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##