* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP892023 02/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 52 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 52 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 60 52 44 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 46 51 57 55 52 56 58 69 60 49 53 61 69 87 79 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 16 15 9 10 14 14 9 -5 9 22 13 11 7 -9 6 15 SHEAR DIR 281 274 269 269 276 282 292 291 304 312 303 281 269 255 249 261 274 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.2 16.2 13.9 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 131 134 133 130 122 115 109 108 113 106 99 91 69 70 70 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -56.3 -55.9 -55.5 -56.8 -57.7 -58.0 -58.1 -58.1 -58.8 -59.4 -59.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 50 52 57 67 73 75 69 59 46 41 40 50 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -23 -28 -40 -55 -24 -59 -72 -62 -56 -58 -45 -43 -19 -41 -67 200 MB DIV -37 -48 -57 -54 -30 -52 -25 -25 -59 -90 -58 -11 35 76 85 25 -24 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 6 6 10 14 24 16 6 -2 -1 10 21 38 98 57 LAND (KM) 2189 2264 2284 2308 2333 2372 2342 2244 2130 1970 1702 1329 865 206 -259 -517 -381 LAT (DEG N) 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 7.4 9.1 11.1 12.7 14.0 15.2 16.4 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 119.1 120.4 121.7 123.0 125.2 127.0 127.9 128.0 127.2 125.0 121.4 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 7 10 16 20 25 34 35 40 46 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 11 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -24. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -22. -29. -38. -45. -49. -50. -48. -48. -53. -57. -60. -66. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -13. -23. -33. -52. -69. -80. -85. -87. -89. -97.-101.-106.-111.-119.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 4.1 117.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP892023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP892023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##