* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL892023 02/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 47 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 47 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 55 46 39 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 66 59 61 57 53 59 65 80 68 62 58 53 48 55 55 53 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 14 12 13 14 7 -1 -10 0 4 1 4 13 11 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 276 272 271 275 272 264 255 250 252 241 231 236 234 217 202 206 209 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 112 111 111 113 117 120 121 120 117 115 117 116 119 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 102 103 102 105 112 119 119 119 113 110 113 113 118 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 7 4 6 4 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 32 32 36 36 36 39 35 34 34 41 43 50 49 55 53 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -41 -40 -42 -41 -31 -10 0 28 43 33 43 29 41 31 27 19 200 MB DIV -11 -34 -22 -33 -31 6 10 -50 -22 17 16 21 -11 10 15 5 21 700-850 TADV 15 8 9 10 9 -7 -9 -15 -9 -5 0 2 1 -1 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 583 584 617 670 722 757 723 562 360 166 39 3 60 90 125 178 268 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.0 13.4 11.1 9.1 7.4 6.3 6.0 6.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.5 57.4 57.0 56.5 55.5 54.9 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.4 56.7 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 4 4 5 5 7 10 12 9 8 4 1 4 4 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 4 3 0 3 14 12 5 5 9 4 3 4 10 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -15. -23. -29. -38. -46. -58. -66. -72. -74. -70. -63. -56. -52. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -27. -37. -54. -67. -78. -87. -95. -95. -91. -85. -78. -69. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.3 57.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL892023 TEST 02/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 59.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 501.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL892023 TEST 02/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL892023 TEST 02/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 47 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 53 44 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 52 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 45 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT