* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 02/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 71 71 62 53 44 37 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 71 71 62 53 35 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 66 61 50 44 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 31 21 36 52 71 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 3 21 21 11 3 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 257 237 224 238 252 284 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.8 19.3 17.9 15.3 12.6 8.7 8.4 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 85 82 78 75 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 83 79 75 73 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -55.2 -56.9 -58.6 -60.5 -62.1 -63.4 -64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 1.6 1.5 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 40 51 53 64 64 70 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 15 20 22 23 21 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 67 190 212 70 -6 31 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 39 55 66 93 66 22 -152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -98 -41 -76 -9 39 39 123 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1122 1048 915 968 1210 913 66 -263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.7 40.9 45.0 48.8 54.3 57.0 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 49.3 45.0 40.8 36.5 24.0 7.0 -9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 39 48 50 47 49 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 26 CX,CY: 26/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 990 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -31. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -21. -31. -40. -45. -51. -59. -67. -77. -84. -88. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 29. 35. 41. 45. 47. 50. 51. 49. 44. 39. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 7. 10. 12. 12. 8. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. -3. -12. -21. -28. -34. -41. -51. -57. -64. -71. -80. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.6 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 02/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 69 71 71 62 53 35 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 69 60 51 33 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 63 54 45 27 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 46 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT