* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802023 03/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 38 34 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 44 47 55 67 62 44 34 37 28 32 35 40 26 23 44 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 10 3 2 7 2 8 4 2 1 4 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 279 276 275 271 277 281 289 265 258 257 241 261 283 288 316 266 261 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.0 22.9 20.5 16.5 13.9 12.3 15.7 16.2 17.3 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 110 112 113 113 114 112 100 90 80 76 74 77 76 77 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 95 100 104 107 110 113 112 100 88 77 74 73 74 74 74 81 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.1 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.7 -57.3 -58.6 -60.4 -61.5 -62.4 -62.4 -62.7 -62.3 -59.5 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 10 11 11 11 11 15 17 20 29 37 39 36 37 30 24 17 11 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -69 -77 -80 -75 -89 -120 -93 -87 -103 -206 -219 -159 -94 -55 -30 -55 200 MB DIV -34 -26 -25 -19 -14 -28 -23 44 34 78 33 0 -45 -32 -170 -385 -381 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -6 0 3 14 0 42 55 17 -5 23 14 6 -25 -22 LAND (KM) 627 542 581 674 804 1111 1469 1974 2277 1748 1291 372 -190 106 -122 -545 -914 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.4 19.0 18.8 19.4 21.3 25.0 30.5 36.9 41.8 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.9 60.4 59.4 58.1 54.8 50.6 45.2 39.0 31.9 23.7 13.4 2.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 2 8 12 14 18 23 31 38 44 48 45 39 33 29 25 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1083 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -25. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. -47. -48. -49. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 22. 25. 28. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -6. -5. -5. -7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -24. -31. -34. -36. -36. -33. -31. -30. -24. -19. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.0 60.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802023 TEST 03/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802023 TEST 03/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802023 TEST 03/06/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 37 34 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT