* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802023 03/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 30 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 34 38 37 33 33 28 20 13 15 13 15 23 22 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 11 14 15 14 7 4 8 3 0 2 3 -6 -5 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 266 265 262 262 264 255 253 264 268 204 195 176 161 146 150 161 209 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.4 29.8 30.1 28.5 25.9 25.2 25.3 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 118 118 117 115 114 113 108 166 171 144 112 105 105 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 106 109 110 109 108 108 107 105 166 171 144 112 105 103 106 106 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -55.7 -55.3 -55.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 4 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 36 39 39 37 35 32 35 42 41 48 46 47 51 54 53 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 7 0 -7 -23 -19 3 16 34 45 53 51 62 49 44 25 13 200 MB DIV -8 -23 -42 -38 -37 -51 -41 -43 -54 -30 -6 -12 -18 -43 -48 -26 -25 700-850 TADV 2 1 -7 -10 -11 -3 -3 -3 -11 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 325 331 333 356 399 300 194 70 -95 -181 -321 -338 -261 -158 -78 -58 -61 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.7 14.3 13.3 12.3 11.6 10.7 9.5 8.1 6.9 5.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 67.9 67.6 67.0 66.5 66.2 66.7 67.9 69.2 70.8 72.4 73.9 75.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 2 5 6 6 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 8 7 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 15 13 4 1 0 0 65 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1144 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -19. -20. -21. -19. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -7. -5. -6. -8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -25. -28. -31. -29. -21. -13. -7. 2. 9. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 67.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802023 TEST 03/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802023 TEST 03/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802023 TEST 03/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 31 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT