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Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend.  The strong 
southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted 
to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the 
upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical 
cyclone.  This is causing an even more hostile upper-level 
environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough, 
since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped 
farther to the east of the center.  The current intensity 
estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with 
a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate 
from UW-CIMSS.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the system later this morning.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast, 
or at about 150/8 kt.  Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn 
toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern 
side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official 
track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical 
consensus model solutions.

Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the 
unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively 
dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely.  Arlene is 
forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a 
remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter. 
This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good 
agreement with the numerical guidance.
 
Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 24.5N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 23.7N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.3N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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