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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023
 
After Cindy exhibited a bursting pattern with deep convection 
covering the center overnight, more recently morning visible 
satellite images show the low-level center accelerating and becoming 
exposed on the northwest end of a small area of colder than -70C 
convective cloud tops. It appears that the forecast increase in 
northwesterly shear is beginning to transpire. Despite the recent 
degradation in structure, a blend of both objective and subjective 
intensity aids still support a current intensity of 50 kt for this 
advisory, though this might be generous. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cindy later 
today and should provide a better assessment of the storm's 
intensity this afternoon.
 
Now that Cindy is beginning to feel the effects of increased 
northwesterly shear, its likely the system has peaked in intensity 
with weakening not far behind. Shear in the EC-SHIPS guidance is 
expected to increase to 30 kt and shift southwesterly in a day or 
so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level airmass should 
contribute to continued decay over the next several days. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast now shows Cindy weakening as soon as later 
today. Beyond 48 h, there remains uncertainty in the guidance as to 
if Cindy will dissipate. The GFS shows some sort of center 
reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3 period, though 
the GFS has a habit of being too aggressive with center 
redevelopment under sheared convection (see what recently transpired 
with Bret). In contrast, the ECMWF continues to show Cindy opening 
up into a trough axis sometime in the day 3-4 period, though it 
should be noted that some of the ECMWF ensemble members try to 
regenerate the storm later on, though not as strong as the GFS. 
Given the small size of Cindy's current circulation, it seems more 
likely Cindy will succumb to the increasingly unfavorable 
environmental conditions and dissipate before the end of the 
forecast period, and the NHC track forecast continues to indicate 
that scenario, with post-tropical status in the day 3-4 period and 
dissipation thereafter. However, this forecast is of lower than 
usual confidence, and its possible the storm could regenerate or 
reform as suggested by the GFS and high-resolution HAFS-A/B models.
 
The storm has accelerated a bit to the northwest this morning, with
the estimated motion at 310/17 kt. This same general motion is
expected to continue, albeit a bit slower over the next
couple of days as the system remains steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge located to its northeast. Beyond the next 24 h, the guidance
spread increases quite a bit, again primarily due to the GFS and
some of the regional hurricane models suggesting the system
attempts reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3-4 time
frame. However, the NHC track favors more of a blend between the
latest ECMWF and TVCA consensus aids, which are further south and
west, assuming a weakening tropical cyclone that continues to follow
the low- to mid-level steering flow. On the current track, Cindy
should pass well the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Sunday into Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 16.4N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.8N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 20.0N  57.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.9N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 23.5N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 25.0N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 26.0N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/1200Z 28.5N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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