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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023
 
The latest CIMSS proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the 
low-level center of Tropical Depression Six has become completely 
exposed, with all the convection displace to the east. Infrared 
imagery also shows that the cold cloud tops from earlier this 
afternoon have warmed over the last few hours. A blend of 
subjective and objective satellite estimates remain around 30 kt. 
Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong 
deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities. 
These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression 
expected to be fairly short-lived. Simulated satellite imagery shows 
the potential for a few more convective bursts over the next day or 
so. The official forecast calls for no further strengthening, and 
for the system to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours and 
dissipate by 48 hours. However, some models suggest that it may 
become devoid of convection a little earlier than currently 
forecast. The intensity forecast remains near the model consensus.
 
The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, to the south of a 
low-level ridge. The system is expected to continue westward, with a 
slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. By Monday, 
the system will round the edge of the ridge with a gradual turn to 
the west-northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous 
NHC forecast and lies near the corrected model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 17.2N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 17.5N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 17.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 
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