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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023
 
The depression has become a little less organized on visible 
satellite imagery this afternoon, with multiple vortices exposed on 
the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB/SAB are around 30 kt, and given the current disorganized 
structure, with an exposed center, the intensity will remain at 30 
kt for this advisory.
 
The depression continues to drift over the central Atlantic.  It 
will slowly move northward later today, and then a little faster 
northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to the 
previous one, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.
 
The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast. 
The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived 
tropical storm, but most of the intensity guidance keeps the system 
as a depression. As the system moves northward, it will encounter 
dry air and increased vertical wind shear. Therefore, the 
depression is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 
about day or so, and dissipate by 48 h.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 28.5N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 29.0N  52.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 30.4N  52.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 32.7N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
 
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