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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today.  
Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center 
is not very deep at this time.  The upper-level outflow is being 
impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive 
of northwesterly shear over the system.  The current intensity 
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak 
T-number from TAFB. 

Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward 
with increasing forward speed.  The current motion estimate is 
360/10 kt.  During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to 
move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward 
speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone,  Then, 
the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion 
of the larger circulation of Franklin.  The official track forecast 
is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the 
global model solutions.

Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level 
circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to 
strengthen significantly during the next day or so.  The official 
forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after 
24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 30.8N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 33.1N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 37.2N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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