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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023
 
Deep convection is waning and becoming more asymmetric near the 
center of Jose on satellite imagery as northerly shear from 
Franklin's outflow increases. The low-level center is starting to 
become exposed. Jose's initial intensity is conservatively lowered 
to 45 kt for this advisory based on the automated Dvorak intensity 
estimate from UW-CIMSS and the degraded satellite structure of Jose. 
This lies near the average of the upper uncertainty bound from the 
CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate (which incorporated the overnight 
SSMIS microwave overpass) and the Dvorak estimates of 35 kt from 
TAFB and SAB. 

Jose is accelerating and the forward motion is currently estimated 
to be north-northeastward (15 degrees) at 20 kt. The increase in 
forward speed and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight 
expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of 
Jose. The tropical storm is expected to dissipate sometime tonight 
as it is absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is slightly 
faster than the consensus aids based on the global model wind 
fields. Little intensity change is forecast as the fast forward 
speed of the system is likely to maintain stronger winds in the 
eastern semicircle, despite diminished convection.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 36.0N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 39.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart
 
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