ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery have shown increasingly 
organized convection, with some convective bursts and curved banding 
features around the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from 
TAFB and SAB have increased to T2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is set at 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm. 

Tropical Storm Margot is currently moving west-northwestward, and 
this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple days. A  
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is indicated by 
the end of the forecast period as a weakness develops in the 
subtropical ridge over east-central Atlantic. The track guidance is 
in general agreement, and the NHC track forecast once again lies 
between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Sea surface temperatures remain in the vicinity of 28C, but Margot 
could encounter moderate wind shear and drier mid-level relative 
humidities later in the forecast period. In general, these 
conditions are not expected to be too hostile, and gradual 
strengthening is indicated. The NHC wind speed forecast brings 
Margot to hurricane strength in two to three days. The NHC intensity 
forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 16.8N  28.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.5N  30.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.5N  33.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  36.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 21.1N  38.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 22.6N  39.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 24.4N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 28.0N  42.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 31.5N  43.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

NNNN