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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
 
Margot has not changed much this morning. Deep convection has 
persisted throughout the morning to the north and east of the 
low-level center.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates from SAB/TAFB and UW-CIMMS range from 30 to 40kt for 
this cycle. Using a blend of these estimates, the intensity is 
held at 35 kt for this advisory. 

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt as 
it traverses the southern edge of a mid-level ridge.  Margot is 
expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so, 
after which it is expected to gradually turn northwestward this 
weekend and then northward by early next week.  Global and regional 
models are in generally good agreement for the next several days, 
but toward the end of the forecast period the track guidance 
diverges significantly as uncertainty in the steering flow 
increases.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory, and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

The intensity forecast is complex. Sea surface temperatures are 
sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear 
is expected to increase during the next day or so and remain strong 
throughout much of the forecast period. Despite the vertical wind 
shear, global and regional hurricane models are in generally good 
agreement that Margot will gradually intensify throughout the 
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the 
prior advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 18.0N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.9N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 20.1N  37.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 21.4N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 22.7N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 24.3N  41.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 25.9N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 28.8N  42.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 31.8N  43.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Kelly
 
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