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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023
 
Although Margot has not become significantly better organized since 
earlier today, recent scatterometer data indicate that it has 
strengthened slightly with maximum winds around 45 kt.  The system 
continues to experience westerly shear that is at least partially 
associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Lee.  In spite 
of the shear, the center appears to be embedded within the main 
area of deep convection.  However, the overall cloud pattern 
remains elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast and 
convective banding features are not well defined at this time.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues moving 
northwestward, or at about 315/8 kt.  Over the next couple of days, 
Margot should turn north-northwestward to northward while passing 
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge.  Later in the 
forecast period, the system's forward progress could be blocked by a 
ridge building to its northwest.  Some of the track guidance models, 
notably the GFS, show Margot turning eastward around the end of the 
forecast period.  The official track forecast has been shifted 
somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is not as 
far east as the new GFS solution.  This is between the simple and 
corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear 
over Margot should remain moderate to strong for the next 48 hours 
or so.  In 3 to 5 days the global models show an upper-level 
anticyclone developing over the system, which would favor 
intensification, although the mid-level humidities are forecast to 
be only marginally conducive by that time.  Gradual strengthening is 
predicted, at just a slightly faster pace than the previous NHC 
forecast, and in good agreement with the latest intensity model 
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 21.6N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 22.5N  39.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 23.9N  40.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 25.4N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 27.0N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 28.8N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 30.7N  41.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 34.0N  41.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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