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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023
 
Margot has become better organized this afternoon. Visible and 
infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center has 
tucked up under the deep convection. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass 
depicts that there is well-defined curved banding around the center. 
Deep convection continues to burst near the center. Subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T/3.5 and 
T/3.0, respectively. Given the improved structure, this advisory 
will lean towards the higher end of these estimates and the initial 
intensity is raised to 55 kt. 
 
Margot is still within an environment of moderate southwesterly wind 
shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to persist, but 
strengthening is forecast over the coming days as the system is 
entering a more favorable upper-level divergent wind pattern. Margot 
will continue to traverse warm sea surface temperatures throughout 
the forecast period, around 28 degrees Celsius.  The NHC forecast is 
slightly higher in the short term, with Margot forecast to become a 
hurricane on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA 
and IVCN consensus intensity aids.
 
Margot is moving northward at around 8 kt. A northward motion is 
expected to continue into a weakness in the central Atlantic 
subtropical ridge. In about 2 to 3 days, Margot's forward motion is 
forecast to slow down as the steering flow weakens. Towards the end 
of the forecast period, there remains considerably large 
cross-track model spread. The NHC track forecast lies between the 
consensus aids, with the system meandering over the central 
Atlantic.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 23.9N  40.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 25.1N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 26.8N  40.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 28.7N  40.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 30.8N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 32.9N  40.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 34.3N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 37.2N  41.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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