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Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
 
Margot has changed little in appearance since the last advisory. 
Visible imagery still shows a broad and robust low-level circulation 
with occasional bursts of convection near the center. A couple 
microwave passes over the past few hours showed some fragmented 
curved bands in the northeast quadrant. Given little change in 
appearance, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, closest to the 
TAFB Dvorak estimate. 

The tropical storm is still drifting southeastward at 4 kt. Margot 
is on the southeast side of a building mid-level ridge and expected 
to complete a clockwise turn by Sunday. Early next week, the storm 
should begin a northward motion followed by a turn to the east. By 
days 4 and 5 there is more uncertainty in the track forecast. The 
model guidance has shifted south and trended slower than the 
previous NHC track forecast. The biggest changes in the track 
forecast for this advisory show a noticeable shift to the south and 
a decrease in forward motion late in the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are relatively hostile and should cause a 
continued weakening trend. Still, marginal sea surface temperatures 
could lead to periodic flares of convection. Therefore, the latest 
NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening associated with the 
expected spin down. Margot is still expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone by day 5. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 36.0N  37.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 35.5N  38.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 34.8N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 34.6N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 35.2N  42.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 36.2N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 37.9N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 39.2N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 39.0N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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