ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023
 
Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day. 
Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that 
the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep 
convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to 
the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands. 
The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data, 
but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective 
organization.
 
The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt.  Over the next 
couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a 
strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing 
cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in 
2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features.  The 
northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the 
forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across 
eastern North America.  The most notable change in this NHC forecast 
is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an 
adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward 
trend in the track guidance.   The official forecast is close to the 
TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest 
ECMWF and HCCA solutions.  The risk continues to increase for some 
form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach 
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days.
 
The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United 
States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or 
southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period.  
As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next 
2-3 days.  The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a 
separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west 
of Philippe in about 3 days.  These two systems are likely to 
interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and 
therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4.  It's possible that 
Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic 
interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and
the British Virgin Islands into early Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the 
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.
 
3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on 
Bermuda later this week.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the 
progress of Philippe.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 19.6N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.4N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.0N  66.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 23.8N  66.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 26.2N  66.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 29.2N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 32.2N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 38.1N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1800Z 45.8N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN