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Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
Satellite imagery this evening indicates that Rina is maintaining a 
well-defined center of circulation. However, strong northwesterly 
vertical shear continues to impact the storm, resulting in 
short-lived, episodic convection in the southeastern quadrant of the 
circulation. Based on the limited convective activity, as well as 
subjective and objective satellite estimates, the intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 35 kt. 

Not much has changed with the intensity forecast, with all reliable 
consensus aids suggesting that Rina will continue to gradually 
weaken. The large-scale environment appears unfavorable for further 
intensification due to low mid-level humidity and continued 
moderate northwesterly wind shear, as well as the detrimental 
influence of nearby Tropical Storm Philippe. Thus, the NHC forecast 
shows Rina gradually weakening through tomorrow and degenerating 
into a remnant low on Sunday.
 
Rina is continuing to track northwestward at approximately 12 kt. 
The storm is expected to continue on this trajectory tonight, with a 
turn to the north expected tomorrow. Early next week, Rina or its 
remnants will accelerate northeastward between a mid-level ridge to 
its east and an upper-level trough to its west. The new track 
forecast is very similar to both the previous NHC forecast and the 
consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 23.5N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 24.7N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 26.5N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 28.7N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 31.1N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
 
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