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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several 
hours.  Although some convection has persisted near the low-level 
center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged.  In fact, 
the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of 
the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, 
and Haiti.  Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and 
organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone 
for now.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the 
earlier Air Force reconnaissance data.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt.  A mid- to 
upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to 
push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the 
northeast over the next few days.  This motion should take the 
center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern 
Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern 
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday.  The 
system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps 
sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the 
models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane 
regional models the slowest.  The NHC track forecast is quite 
similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the 
guidance envelope.

The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure 
of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a 
strengthen a little during the next couple of days.  The disturbance 
could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through 
the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas. 
 However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical 
wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the 
cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it 
merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally 
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a
tropical storm on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical
storm watches are in effect for these areas.
 
2.  Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will 
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and 
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to 
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher 
terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 15.9N  81.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/1200Z 16.9N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  18/0000Z 18.7N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 20.8N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 23.9N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 27.6N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z 31.9N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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